Potter Fire

Timber (Litter and Understory) Medium

Logging Slash

Closed Timber Litter

Timber litter and timber understory, (TL5, TU5). Duff and downed logs. Herbaceous and woody live material beginning to cure to the point where they can independently carry fire.

Moderate

Wind driven Runs

Torching

Spotting

Wind and slope driven runs and short to range spotting observed, particularly in stands where moss and lichen is abundant in the canopy. Rollout on steep slopes contributing to suppression difficulty. Interior island consumption

IA potential expected to increase Tuesday (8-16) through Thursday (8-18) due to forecasted thunderstorm activity.

Potter Type 1 hand crews are being utilized in suppression actions in challenging terrain and are involved in several ongoing strategic firing operations through end of shift Tuesday 8/18/22. Continuing actions include holding and improving line on the Potter Fire to support strategic firing operations, contingency line prep, as well as controlling and patrolling assigned IA's.

Resources continue to move between Big Swamp and Potter Fire as needed.

12 hours: Fair overnight humidity recovery. Continued movement where containment lines are indirect. Rollout likely. Firing operations favorable on Potter. Lightning expected.

24 hours: Overnight humidity recovery poor to fair and worsening over the next few days. Wide valley Live fuels continue to cure, adding to fine and coarse woody fuels as a spread agent. Overnight humidity recovery continues to deteriorate. Wide valley and wind exposure and increasing instability will allow for ventilation of fire. Short to mid range spotting potential. Live fuels continue to cure, adding to fine and coarse woody fuels as a spread agent. Conditions are good for moderate intensity firing operations beginning in late afternoon.

48 hours: Overnight humidity recovery continues to deteriorate. Wide valley and wind exposure and increasing instability will allow for ventilation of fire. Short to mid range spotting potential. Live fuels continue to cure, adding to fine and coarse woody fuels as a spread agent. Continued backing of fire where indirect or unburned portions of direct line exist.

72 hours: Cumulative nights of fair to poor humidity recovery, wide valley and wind exposure precondition fuels for a transition in potential fire behavior. Short to mid range spotting potential. Live fuels continue to cure, adding to fine and coarse woody fuels as a spread agent. Backing and flanking spread. Uphill torching runs from rollout, snags and flanking spread likely.

Anticipated after 72 hours: Cumulative nights of fair to poor humidity recovery, wide valley and wind exposure precondition fuels for a transition in potential fire behavior. Short to mid range spotting potential. Live fuels continue to cure, adding to fine and coarse woody fuels as a spread agent. Backing and flanking spread. Uphill torching runs from rollout, snags and flanking spread likely.

Wednesday was an active weather day with a Red Flag Warning in effect across the fire. The morning started off much warmer with poor humidity recovery, generally below 30% on the ridges. Thunderstorms began building around 1400. As of 1500, several showers and thunderstorms were spread across the area, with additional activity expected to develop through the evening. Gusty outflow winds and lightning are expected. Some showers may linger overnight into Thursday morning.

The Red Flag Warning continues on Thursday as conditions remain warm and unstable. Thunderstorms with gusty outflow wind and lightning are again possible in the afternoon. Otherwise, temperatures will remain warm but a few degrees cooler. Looking ahead, conditions will cool and dry out Friday, with moderating temperatures expected this weekend.