Dolan Fire

Chaparral (6 feet)

Brush (2 feet)

Timber (Grass and Understory)

Narrative:

The area is surrounded by recent fire scars except to the SE where there is no record of much of that landscape burning since 1999 if not earlier. Recent burn scars (Sobranes) have helped reduce fire spread. In the 2008 fire scar areas, where shrub growth is recent the fuels aren¿t receptive. Where there are dead fuel components (older, decadent brush) fuels are receptive and are carrying/consuming well. A fire behavior advisory is in place for the mountain PSAs of Southern California for extremely dry fuels. Low live fuels moistures combined with poor humidity recoveries can result in very active fire behavior on the Dolan fire, even in the absence of significant winds.

Moderate

Uphill Runs

Flanking

Creeping

Narrative:

With low relative humidity values and poor recoveries above the marine layer, fuels remain available for active burning day and night. Although the fire environment can support active fire behavior and big growth days, successful suppression actions have quelled overall fire movement. The majority of activity is occurring in interior pockets of unburned fuel. The Dolan fire footprint covers a large area with complex topography, varying vegetation types and numerous local weather factors that have been influencing fire behavior. The burn period on the coastal side of the fire is relatively short due to the persistent marine layer. Fire weakened trees and rolling material continue to be a safety concern.

Look for opportunities to directly engage areas of heat that persist along the southern and southwestern perimeter of the incident. Continue to prepare for contingency burn operations on the northern and eastern contingency lines. Seek opportunity for direct control actions along the northern and eastern perimeter in DIVS M, O, P. Continue protection of values at risk. Assess for potential indirect containment opportunities.

12-24 hours: As securing and mop-up continues, active fire behavior will be limited to unburned interior pockets of fuel.

48 hours: There is a predicted heatwave to impact the fire area beginning on Sept. 26th. There is potential for the east flank of the fire, which has not been able to be contained with handline, to pick up with fire activity.

72 hours: If the fire were to come out of the fire perimeter on the eastern flank, it will want to burn into the rugged Santa Lucia Creek drainage and move to the south with wind and terrain towards contingency lines. If it were to get established across the southern flank, it will be burning in and around remote, rugged terrain and in an incredibly thick fuel bed with minimal operational options.

Clear skies prevailed once again over the fire area on Thursday with slightly cooler temperatures and somewhat higher humidity values. Afternoon temperatures generally stayed in the mid-80s with some of the warmer locations reaching into the lower 90s. Humidity values fell around 20% at many locations with generally light, terrain dominated winds. Fair to good overnight humidity recovery is expected Thursday night with the lowest recovery expected at higher elevations.

A weak weather system will move through central and northern California on Friday, resulting in the coolest afternoon temperatures for the next week as well as a gradual change in the predominate wind flow over the fire from northwest to a more northerly pattern. High pressure will build over the western US, bringing temperatures up significantly Saturday through Monday. Afternoon humidity values Saturday will fall into the teens and fair to poor overnight humidity recoveries in the higher elevations overnight into Sunday. Moderate northerly winds are expected on Saturday with some gusty areas, although winds will diminish on Sunday and Monday with the hottest days of the week expected.