The 416 Fire started at about 10 a.m. on June 1, 2018, approximately 10 miles north of Durango, CO. The Portland National Incident Management Organization (NIMO) team, Joe Reinarz Incident Commander, is managing the fire. The fire is burning on the west side of State Highway 550 on some private land and on the San Juan National Forest. The fire is burning in grass, brush, and timber. The weather conditions remain critical and fuels are ideal for significant fire growth. The fire has been less active for several days but continues to burn in rough and inaccessible terrain. No homes are currently under evacuation orders, but some residences remain under pre-evacuation notice. Structure protection is in place.
|Current as of|
|Date of Origin||Friday June 01st, 2018 approx. 10:02 AM|
|Location||13 miles north of Durango, CO|
|Incident Commander||Joe Reinarz, Incident Commander NIMO|
|Coordinates||37.461 latitude, -107.808 longitude|
|Percent of Perimeter Contained||37%|
|Estimated Containment Date||Tuesday July 31st, 2018 approx. 12:00 AM|
Timber (Grass & Understory) Brush (2 feet)
Timber (litter and understory)
Live fuels (Gambel Oak, Aspen) are seasonally dry, and have been affected by prolonged drought. Fuel moistures overall are critically low.
Moderate, Group Torching, Wind Driven Runs, Spotting
Areas of the fire showed an increase in activity. Increased fire behavior due to hot, dry, gusty winds, and unstable
atmosphere. Current Red Flag Warning for low relative humidity and strong winds.
Continuing to cleanup and improve contingency lines. Continuing to assess suppression repair needs and implement where appropriate.
Monitor fire spread and intensity along indirect lines and within the wilderness.
|Projected Incident Activity|
Hot, dry, windy, and unstable atmosphere has created the potential for very active fire behavior. Increased activity on the west side of the fire includes areas with limited surface fire spread, backing, and occasional
Due to containment of eastern and southeastern flanks of fire, potential movement of fire would most likely occur along the southwestern, western, and northern flanks. Fire activity has been increasing and public has been
seeing more smoke which has increased public concern.
Continued drying of fuels is expected with low RH and poor night time recovery. Areas with smoldering and creeping fire activity may graduate to active/very active fire behavior due to dry breezy conditions and clear sky. Backing fire with roll-out may produce slope reversal fire spread opportunities on the west side of the fire.
Due to containment of eastern and southeastern flanks of fire, potential movement of fire would most likely occur along the southwestern, western, and northern flanks.
Continued persistent hot/dry/breezy weather pattern. Potential smoke concerns likely in event of fire spread. Gusty NW ridge tops winds (20 mph). Increased fire behavior on the west side of the fire due to heavy fuels and sustained backing with resultant slope reversal fire spread.
After 72 hours:
Active fire behavior potential where heat sources are present. Potential for more intense fire behavior (group torching, short crown runs, rapid rate of spread) where wind, fuels, and a source of ignition align. Wind field
transitions from W-NW to W-SW by Wednesday.
Continue to evaluate need to implement firing operation along primary control line in Division H.
Anticipated after 72 hours: Increase in active fire behavior potential due to high temperatures, low humidity, and unstable
24 to 48 Hour Forecast Outlook: (Monday)
Fire weather conditions over the fire will remain near critical on Monday in the wake of a weak weather system that is moving through the Great Basin on
Sunday. Although warm temperatures, poor overnight humidity recoveries, and
windy conditions are expected to continue Monday, daytime minimum humidity values will only fall into the mid-teens. This increase will be just enough to keep
the area out of Red Flag conditions.
48 to 72 Hours: Tuesday/Wednesday
Temperatures will climb over the fire area on Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure builds over the Southwest. Daytime humidity values will fall to near 10% Wednesday with poor overnight recoveries expected. As the area of high
pressure begins to push eastward, the overall wind direction will begin to shift to the southwest on Wednesday.
Beyond 72 Hours: Thursday on
Critical fire weather conditions will likely return Thursday through Saturday. Hot and dry conditions will continue Thursday onward as the area of high pressure continues to move eastward and a new Pacific storm system begins to dig into
the Intermountain West and the Great Basin. Winds will begin to increase Thursday remain southwesterly through Friday.