The 416 Fire started at about 10 a.m. on June 1, 2018, approximately 10 miles north of Durango, CO. Rocky Mountain Type 1 Incident Management Team is managing the fire. The fire is burning on the west side of State Highway 550 on some private land and on the San Juan National Forest. The fire is burning in grass, brush, and timber. The Weather conditions remain critical and fuels are ideal for significant fire growth. The fire has been very active and continues to burn in rough and inaccessible terrain. Many homes have been evacuated and structure protection is in place.
|Current as of|
|Date of Origin||Friday June 01st, 2018 approx. 10:02 AM|
|Location||13 miles north of Durango, CO|
|Incident Commander||Todd Pechota, Incident Commander Rocky Mountain Type 1 Incident Management Team|
|Coordinates||37.461 latitude, -107.808 longitude|
|Percent of Perimeter Contained||35%|
|Estimated Containment Date||Tuesday July 31st, 2018 approx. 12:00 AM|
Timber (Grass & Understory) Brush (2 feet)
Timber (litter and understory)
Live fuels (Gambel Oak, Aspen) are seasonally dry, and have been affected by prolonged drought.
Strong warming and drying trend will extend through the week. Current fire behavior concerns will increase due to warming, drying, and atmospheric instability.
Implementing direct tactics in Division D to secure the southern portion of the western flank into the Hermosa Wilderness. Division H is prepped and remains an indirect option for the southern portion of the western flank. Alternative containment lines for the southern portion of the western flank are constructed near the Junction/Lightner Creek area in Division E and Division F.
|Projected Incident Activity|
12 hours: Clear sky, warm temperatures, and low humidity will produce continued surface drying in all fuels. Road surfaces are showing some dust, shaded areas are retaining surface moisture. Pockets of smoldering fuels (stump holes, sheltered duff) are present across a wide geographic area.
24 hours: Continues accelerated drying of fuels is expected due to low RH and poor nighttime recovery. Persistent may graduate to areas of creeping due to dry. breezy conditions and clear sky.
48 hours: Drying trend will continue accelerated by poor relative humidity recovery (30-35%), and low daytime RH (single digit to low teens). Dry northwest wind flow will produce new drainage alignment and smoke direction concerns, ridgetops will be gusty (25 mph). Isolated smoldering fuel and creeping likely to graduate to areas of low-moderate fire behavior with spreading surface fire.
72 hours: Moderate fire behavior will occur where heat sources are present. Potential Haines 6 and RFW (wind/RH) conditions coupled with drying fuels may promote active fire behavior where heat sources are present. Potential for problematic fire behavior (group torching, short crown runs, rapid rate of spread) where wind, fuels, and a source of ignition exist.
Anticipated after 72 hours: Moderate to high fire behavior potential due to high temperatures, low humidity and Haines 6 conditions through Friday, some moderation expected into the weekend with modest cooling trend.
24-48 Hour Forecast Outlook: Warm and dry conditions will intensify on Wednesday as a high pressure system begins to establish itself over the Southwest and the Great Basin. Highs on Wednesday will rise into the lower 80s while minimum RH values fall into the 12-15% range. Overnight minimum temperatures will fall into the mid 40s with RH recoveries into the 25-30% range. Winds will remain northwesterly as the high pressure builds into the area. The atmosphere will become unstable with a Haines value of 6 expected on Wednesday.
48 to 72 Hours: Thursday will begin a potential critical weather period as the high temperature/low RH combination start to peak over the Four Corners. Temperatures are expected to warm into the low to mid 80s over the fire Thursday as minimum RH values continue to drop to near 10%. Winds at ridge top level will remain west-northwest near 25mph. A weather system moving through the Great Plains on Thursday will bring enough moisture and instability into the Rockies to introduce the possibility of dry thunderstorms on Thursday into Friday. On Friday, high temperatures into the mid 80s are expected with afternoon RH values falling at or below 10%. Poor RH recoveries and Haines values of 6 are expected for the 42-72 hour period. The issuance of a Rdd Flag Warning is possible for Thursday and/or Friday.
Beyond 72 Hours: The risk of critical fire weather conditions will continue on Saturday as the high pressure begins to break down and a weak weather disturbance moves eastward across the Great Basin. Daytime highs will cool slightly into the lower 80s on Saturday as minimum RH values increase slightly into the 15-20% range. Ridgetop winds are expected to increase slightly to 30 mph.
A storm system moving through the Great Basin on Saturday may reintroduce the possibility of scattered thunderstorms to western CO Sunday with a return to a somewhat warmer and drier pattern early next week.