NOTICE: This will be the last update provided by the Southeast Washington Type 3 IMT
HIGHLIGHTS: Command will transfer to a Type 4 Team from the Washington Department of Natural Resources at 6am Saturday. No further updates available on inciweb and Facebook pages after 6pm tonight.
|Current as of||Fri, 10/21/2022 - 16:23|
|Date of Origin|
|Location||1.5 miles north of Skykomish, Washington|
|Incident Commander||Leonard Johnson, SEWA T3 IMT|
47° 43' 42'' Latitude
|Percent of Perimeter Contained||51%|
|Estimated Containment Date||2022-10-31 00:00:00|
Timber (Litter and Understory)
A Cool, cloudy, moist day with a smoke inversion over the incident maintained areas of smoldering fire behavior. An abrupt change in the weather pattern will occur as rain and higher-elevation snow showers expand and intensify through Friday. Forecast rainfall amounts and duration will be sufficient to diminish fire threat and result in limited smoldering in heavy fuels.
The fire is in patrol status.
|Projected Incident Activity||
Very smokey conditions in lower portions of the fire area with light winds and an inversion maintained pockets of persistent smoldering, and creeping fire spread across portions of the fire, with isolated pockets of surface fire and flare ups. Continued isolated interior consolidation of unburned islands and pockets of fuel in remote high-elevation areas. Heavy fuels continue to retain heat across the fire area due to persistent dry conditions. Aggressive suppression activities continue to produce areas that are now secure from fire activity.
24 hours: Abrupt weather pattern change brings significant precipitation and high-elevation snow showers throughout the day. Fire behavior will be reduced to isolated smoldering heavy fuels (stump holes, log ends). No fire activity is expected with the change in weather.
48 hours: Major weather pattern change with continuing rainfall and high elevation snow accumulations of 2" - 4" above 4000'. Fire behavior will diminish to smoldering. Heavy fuels and deep duff will continue to retain heat due to seasonal dryness.
72 hours: Waves of rain and mountain snow showers, with fewer heat sources.
Anticipated after 72 hours: Onshore flow from the west and southwest will continue to bring a steady stream of Pacific moisture into the area through next week. No fire activity is anticipated
An approaching storm system and cold front brought widespread cloud cover, rising humidity through the afternoon, and a few light rain showers to the area. Along with light winds, the cloud cover helped maintain smoky valley conditions and poor visibility and air quality through the afternoon. A significant weather pattern change will occur Friday as a storm system brings colder temperatures in the 30s and 40s, a modest onshore wind from the west, and expanding valley rain and high elevation snow above 4000 feet. The heaviest rain will occur Friday afternoon into Friday night with at least an inch of rain, with localized amounts approaching 2 inches expected through Saturday morning. A brief break in the persistent rain is expected Sunday, along with a slight warmup to the 50s in some valleys. The active, more fall-like weather pattern returns late Sunday with several waves of rain through the middle of next week.